Netflix: Awaiting a Reversal for a Long Opportunity
"Netflix is not looking good. And I've been warning about Netflix at the same time telling you it's one of the most interesting stocks to go long on as soon as a few things come change as long as we get some reversal. And I've told you that we've got to get a 2x volume. Specifically, I would love it for a hit off of 1050. So, I'm looking for one more capitulation moment for Netflix and then I would love to go long. But this is one that I think should be on everybody's radar because it's much more attractive than Apple that might get from 280 to 300."
The speaker identifies Netflix as a potential long opportunity, contingent on a reversal backed by a 2x volume surge. A trigger identified is a hit off the 1050 level, signaling a possible capitulation moment that could offer an attractive risk-reward profile.
Netflix Expands into Social Gaming
"Netflix is again one of my top positions in my portfolio. They have announced Party Games, a new feature where you play social games on your TV using your phone as a controller. This innovation is aimed at lowering churn and raising retention, further reinforcing Netflix's market leadership in streaming and content."
Netflix's move into social gaming is seen as a strategic effort to improve user retention and complement its strong streaming business.
Netflix as a Top Buy Despite Limited Dislocation
"I want to get your thoughts on another name that's had a strong run this year, but you think could go higher, and that's Netflix. It's my number three pick. Uh it's uh I wish it was dislocated. It's not dislocated. I you know, so it's hard to get super pumped beyond the idea. And I guess Morgan, in all fairness, I don't see Mark Mahaney often highlight a company as his top pick that isn't dislocated. But despite that, he recognizes that the fundamentals of the company are so strong that it still justifies a top buy today. In the next three months, I got two catalysts on Netflix. Is it going to rerate dramatically from here? No. But can it compound and maybe rerate a little bit? Yes. That's why it's one of our top three picks."
Mark Mahaney outlines his bullish stance on Netflix, positioning it as his third pick despite acknowledging that it isn't deeply dislocated. He points to near-term catalysts over the next three months as reasons to expect modest re-rating and compound growth, making it an actionable buy signal for investors.
Netflix Shows Strong Support Near Key Technical Levels
"Absolutely, man. So first of all, Netflix loves the 200 day. I have current support around 1070, really close to 1070, and that aligns with the last high we had around 1070-1075. It appears that the stock is bouncing off this level, and I'm picking some up currently. I'm not saying it can't come down lower, but the 1,00 mark would be what I'm looking for, especially with the upcoming stock split which could attract new investors."
Money Mike highlights that Netflix is showing strong technical support around the 1070 level, which is consistent with previous highs. He indicates that he is currently buying Netflix, expecting further upside aided by an impending stock split that will make the stock more accessible to retail investors.
Netflix Remains a Buy Despite Premium Valuation
"Now, finally, in number six, the last stock that I'll highlight that I believe is a buy today is in the Story Fund. In this portfolio, I have a more concentrated look on a few companies, and one of them that has been an incredible winner in this portfolio, of course, is Netflix. It was as high as $1,300 per share, and now it's below $1,100 per share. While some investors will interpret this as an overpriced company coming back down to a more realistic valuation, I see it differently. I think that this is an opportunity for investors that have missed out on Netflix to finally take a bite. And the reason why is because I believe that Netflix is not overvalued. I've studied this company for a long period of time and I still believe there's far more to come that's not being priced in for Netflix."
The speaker explicitly recommends buying Netflix despite its premium valuation, arguing that the company's strong operating leverage, robust revenue growth, and long-term free cash flow expansion present a significant, underappreciated upside over the next five years.
Netflix Split: Waiting for the Dip and Using Options for a Cheaper Entry
"So guys, based on today's current price, if my middle assumptions occur, I'm going to get a 5% return on my money based on a discounted cash flow. To me, that says, you just got to wait. I have my watch list at 700. I might want to increase that to 800. That doesn't mean I'm buying it then, but I just want to be notified. Now, let's say you disagree with me and you say, 'I actually love Netflix at this price.' There's something I want to encourage you to look at, an options chain. You can basically get paid to buy Netflix at a cheaper price in the future. So, let's pick a month from now, 125. What we're going to do is sell puts."
The speaker explains that while Netflix's 10-for-1 stock split is merely cosmetic and does not alter the company's intrinsic value, investors should not chase the lower post-split price at face value. Instead, he recommends waiting for a dip to target levels around 700 to 800, or alternatively, using an options strategy (selling puts) to effectively lower the entry price, thereby aligning with his valuation approach.
Netflix Stock Split Facilitates Equity Management
"Netflix announced a 10 for one stock split to be completed in November. Netflix already posted Q3 earnings. It'll be complete after market close on Friday the 14th. Netflix stock over a thousand bucks a share, 10 for one split is gonna reduce that down to just over a hundred bucks a share, assuming the stock price doesn't change between now and the 14th, probably helps Netflix manage that employee SBC program."
The discussion outlines Netflix's decision to execute a 10-for-1 stock split, aimed primarily at streamlining its employee stock-based compensation. The analyst notes that, similar to ServiceNow, reducing the per share price can help in managing equity awards while underpinning expectations of continued revenue growth.
Thoughts on $NFLX earnings
"The main risk is that subscriber growth slows as global markets mature. Long term upside will depend on how much pricing power and engagement $NFLX can sustain as competition in streaming stays fierce. The next phase for $NFLX will hinge on how effectively it monetizes its huge user base through advertising, gaming, and selective price increases. If those bets work, today's valuation could end up looking conservative. Overall $NFLX remains one of the most durable growth stories in entertainment, but with the stock already pricing in much of the good news, the bar for near term upside keeps getting higher."
$NFLX reported another steady quarter with revenue up 17%, meeting expectations. Earnings came in below estimates, but the shortfall was due to a one time tax charge in Brazil. Without that, Netflix would have exceeded profit expectations. The company guided slightly higher for the next quarter, pointing to more steady growth ahead. Even after accounting for the Brazil impact, results were only modestly above expectations, which makes the quarter feel a bit underwhelming given how well the stock
Netflix faces headwinds amid earnings tax dispute
"yeah, I mean, we talked through two names in the green. Let's talk about one that ended in the red. This is Netflix, ticker NFL, the third biggest decliner in the S&P 500, shedding more than 8% this week. It lost 10% on Wednesday after, of course, we know its earnings revealed a tax dispute with Brazil, which cut into its third quarter earnings. Of course, this is a company where a lot of investors are used to upside surprises here. So, this was definitely uh drag on the company this week. And of course, this really just raises broader growth concerns for investors that are used to positivity here for the stock. But shares of Netflix still up at 23% this year."
The segment reviews Netflix's disappointing performance, highlighting an 8% decline driven by a 10% drop on Wednesday, which was attributed to a tax dispute with Brazil affecting earnings. Broader growth concerns are emerging despite a 23% year-to-date gain.
Netflix Stock Rated as Buy Despite Earnings Miss
"So to update my recommendation, I will keep Netflix stock rated as a buy after evaluating those results. And here's an example of um why you know surrounding earnings events. Sometimes it's better to wait for the earnings to come out, digest the figures, and then make your allocation, especially when you had a company that was trading at a relatively expensive valuation going into the earnings release."
The speaker reviews Netflix's Q3 earnings where missed operating margin forecasts, due to an unexpected one-time tax expense in Brazil, led to a downgrade of its full-year margin forecast. Despite these issues, he emphasizes Netflix's structural strengths and dominant position in streaming, updating his recommendation to maintain a buy rating on NFLX.