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"CRCL: Short thesis on Circle, $205 stock trading at 90% of USDC circulation. Overvalued given: 1) Revenue depends on interest rates & USDC adoption 2) Limited B2B appeal as blockchain requires debit vs credit 3) Lacks consumer incentives 4) No tech moat 5) Prohibitive Coinbase agreement 6) IPO lockup expires Dec 2025. Fair value significantly below current price."
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